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Red 1221
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Age : Join date : 2008-12-11 Posts : 57 Location :

PostSubject: Predictions   Wed Dec 31, 2008 6:10 pm

This was taken from the Street.com today.

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Without further ado, here is my list of 20 surprises for 2009. In doing
so, we start the new year with the surprising story that ended the old
year, the alleged Madoff Ponzi scheme.

1. The Russian mafia and Russian oligarchs are found to be large
investors with Madoff. During the next few weeks, a well-known CNBC
investigative reporter documents that the Russian oligarchs, certain
members of the Russian mafia and several Colombian drug cartel families
have invested and laundered more than $2 billion in Madoff's strategy
through offshore master feeders and through several fund of funds.
There are several unsuccessful attempts made on Madoff and/or his
family's lives. With the large Russian investments in Madoff having
gone sour and in light of the subsequent acts of violence against his
family, U.S./Russian relations, which already were at a low point, are
threatened. Madoff's lawyers disclose that he has cancer, and his trial
is delayed indefinitely as he undergoes chemotherapy.

2. Housing stabilizes sooner than expected. President Obama, under the
aegis of Larry Summers, initiates a massive and unprecedented Marshall
Plan to turn the housing market around. His plan includes several
unconventional measures: Among other items is a $25,000 tax credit on
all home purchases as well as a large tax credit and other subsidies to
the financial intermediaries that provide the mortgage loans and
commitments. This, combined with a lowering in mortgage rates (and a
boom in refinancing), the bankruptcy/financial restructuring of three
public homebuilders (which serves to lessen new home supply) and a
flip-flop in the benefits of ownership vs. the merits of renting,
trigger a second-quarter 2009 improvement in national housing activity,
but the rebound is uneven. While the middle market rebounds, the
high-end coastal housing markets remain moribund, as they impacted
adversely by the Wall Street layoffs and the carnage in the hedge fund
industry.

3. The nation's commercial real estate markets experience only a
shallow pricing downturn in the first half of 2009. President Obama's
broad-ranging housing legislation incorporates tax credits and other
unconventional remedies directed toward nonresidential lending and
borrowing. Banks become more active in office lending (as they do in
residential real estate lending), and the commercial mortgage-backed
securities market never experiences anything like the weakness
exhibited in the 2007 to 2008 market. Office REIT shares, similar to
housing-related equities, rebound dramatically, with several doubling
in the new year's first six months.

4. The U.S. economy stabilizes sooner than expected. After a decidedly
weak January-to-February period (and a negative first-quarter 2009 GDP
reading, which is similar to fourth-quarter 2008's black hole), the
massive and creative stimulus instituted by the newly elected President
begins to work. Banks begin to lend more aggressively, and lower
interest rates coupled with aggressive policy serve to contribute to an
unexpected refinancing boom. By March, personal consumption
expenditures begin to rebound slowly from an abysmal holiday and
post-holiday season as energy prices remain subdued, and a shallow
recovery occurs far sooner than many expect. Second-quarter corporate
profits growth comfortably beats the downbeat and consensus forecasts
as inflation remains tame, commodity prices are subdued, productivity
rebounds and labor costs are well under control.

5. The U.S. stock market rises by close to 20% in the year's first
half. Housing-related stocks (title insurance, home remodeling,
mortgage servicers and REITs) exhibit outsized and market-leading gains
during the January-to-June interval. Heavily shorted retail and
financial stocks also advance smartly. The year's first-half market
rise of about 20% is surprisingly orderly throughout the six-month
period, as volatility moves back down to pre-2008 levels, but rising
domestic interest rates, still weak European economies and a halt to
China's economic growth limit the stock market's progress in the back
half of the year.

6. A second quarter "growth scare" bursts the bubble in the government
bond market. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note moves steadily
higher from 2.10% at year-end to over 3.50% by early fall, putting a
ceiling on the first-half recovery in the U.S. stock market, which is
range-bound for the remainder of the year, settling up by approximately
20% for the 12-month period ending Dec. 31, 2009. Foreign central
banks, faced with worsening domestic economies, begin to shy away from
U.S. Treasury auctions and continue to diversify their reserve assets.
By year-end, the U.S. dollar represents less than 60% of worldwide
reserve assets, down from 2008's year-end at 62% and down from 70% only
five years ago. China's 2008 economic growth proves to be greatly
exaggerated as unemployment surprisingly rises in early 2009 and the
rate of growth in China's real GDP moves towards zero by the second
quarter. Unlike more developed countries, the absence of a social
safety net turns China's fiscal economic policy inward and aggressively
so. Importantly, China not only is no longer a natural buyer of U.S.
Treasuries but it is forced to dip into it's piggy bank of foreign
reserves, adding significant upside pressure to U.S. note and bond
yields.

7. Commodities markets remain subdued. Despite an improving domestic
economy, a further erosion in the Western European and Chinese
economies weighs on the world's commodities markets. Gold never reaches
$1,000 an ounce and trades at $500 an ounce at some point during the
year. (Gold-related shares are among 2009's worst stock market
performers.) The price of crude oil briefly rallies early in the year
after a step up in the violence in the Middle East but trades in a
broad $25 to $65 range for all of 2009 as President Obama successfully
introduces aggressive and meaningful legislation aimed at reducing our
reliance on imported oil. The price of gasoline briefly breaches $1.00
a gallon sometime in the year. The U.S. dollar outperforms most of the
world's currencies as the U.S. regains its place as an economic and
political powerhouse.

8. Capital spending disappoints further. Despite an improving economy,
large-scale capital spending projects continue to be delayed in favor
of maintenance spending. Technology shares continue to lag badly, and
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD Quote - Cramer on AMD - Stock Picks) files
bankruptcy.

9. The hedge fund and fund of funds industries do not recover in 2009.
The Madoff fraud, poor hedge fund performance and renewed controversy
regarding private equity marks (particularly among a number of
high-profile colleges like Harvard and Yale) prove to be a short-term
death knell to the alternative investments industry. As well, the
gating of redemption requests disaffects high net worth, pension plan,
endowment and University investors to both traditional hedge funds and
to private equity (which suffers from a series of questionable and
subjective marking of private equity deal pricings at several leading
funds). Three of the 10 largest hedge funds close their doors as
numerous hedge funds reduce their fee structures in order to retain
investors. Faced with an increasingly uncertain investor base, several
big hedge funds merge with like-sized competitors in a quickening hedge
fund industry consolidation. By year-end, the number of hedge funds is
down by well over 50%.

10. Mutual fund redemptions from 2008 reverse into inflows in 2009. The
mutual fund industry does not suffer the same fate as the hedge fund
industry. In fact, a renaissance of interest in mutual funds
(especially of a passive/indexed kind) develops. Fidelity is the
largest employer of the graduating classes (May 2009) at the Wharton
and Harvard Business Schools; it goes public in late 2009 in the year's
largest IPO. Shares of T. Rowe Price (TROW Quote - Cramer on TROW -
Stock Picks) and AllianceBernstein (AB Quote - Cramer on AB - Stock
Picks) enjoy sharp price gains in the new year. Bill Miller retires
from active fund management at Legg Mason (LM Quote - Cramer on LM -
Stock Picks).

11. State and municipal imbalances and deficits mushroom. The municipal
bond market seizes up in the face of poor fiscal management, revenue
shortfalls and rising budgets at state and local levels. Municipal bond
yields spike higher. A new Municipal TARP totaling $2 trillion is
introduced in the year's second half.

12. The automakers and the UAW come to an agreement over wages. Under
the pressure of late first-quarter bankruptcies, the UAW agrees to
bring compensation in line with non-U.S. competitors and exchanges a
reduction in retiree health care benefits for equity in the major
automobile manufacturers.

13. The new administration replaces SEC Commissioner Cox. Upon his
inauguration, President Obama immediately replaces SEC Commissioner
Christopher Cox with Yale professor Dr. Jeffrey Sonnenfeld. The new SEC
commissioner recommends that the uptick rule be reinstated and
undertakes a yearlong investigation/analysis into the impact of Ultra
Bear ETFs on the market. Later in the year, the administration
recommends that the SEC be abolished and folded into the Treasury
Department. Dr. Sonnenfeld returns to Yale University.

14. Large merger of equals deals multiply. Economies of scale and
mergers of equals become the M&A mantras in 2009, and niche
investment banking boutiques such as Evercore (EVR Quote - Cramer on
EVR - Stock Picks), Lazard (LAZ Quote - Cramer on LAZ - Stock Picks)
and Greenhill (GHL Quote - Cramer on GHL - Stock Picks) flourish.
Goldman Sachs and Citigroup announce a merger of equals, but Goldman
maintains management control of the combined entity. Morgan Stanley (MS
Quote - Cramer on MS - Stock Picks) acquires Blackstone. Disney (DIS
Quote - Cramer on DIS - Stock Picks) purchases Carnival (CCL Quote -
Cramer on CCL - Stock Picks). Microsoft (MSFT Quote - Cramer on MSFT -
Stock Picks) acquires Yahoo! (YHOO Quote - Cramer on YHOO - Stock
Picks) at $5 a share.

15. Focus shifts for several media darlings. Though continuing on CNBC,
Jim "El Capitan" Cramer announces his own reality show that will air on
NBC in the fall. At the time his reality show premieres, he also writes
a new book, Stay Mad for Life: How to Prosper From a Buy/Hold
Investment Strategy. Dr. Nouriel Roubini continues to talk depression,
but the price of his speaking engagements are cut in half. He writes a
new book, The New Depression: How Leverage's Long Tail Will Result in
Bread Lines. "Kudlow & Company's" Larry Kudlow proclaims that it's
time to harvest the "mustard seeds" of growth and, in an admission of
the Democrats' growing economic successes, officially leaves the ranks
of the Republican party and returns to his Democratic roots. Yale's Dr.
Robert Shiller adopts a variant and positive view on housing and the
economy, joining the bullish ranks, and writes a new book, The New
Financial Order: Economic Opportunity in the 21st Century.

16. The Internet becomes the tactical nuke of the digital age. The Web
is invaded on many levels as governments, consumers and investors freak
out. First, an act of cyberterrorism occurs that compromises the
security of a major government (similar to the attacks this year
emanating from the Chinese military aimed at the German Chancellery) or
uses DoS against media and e-commerce sites. Second, a major data
center will fail and will be far worse than the 1988 Cornell student
incident that infected about 5% of the Unix boxes on the early
Internet. Third, cybercrime explodes exponentially in 2008. Financial
markets will be exposed to hackers using elaborate fraud schemes (such
as liquidating and sweeping online brokerage accounts and shorting
stocks, then employing a denial-of-service attack against the company).
Fourth, Storm Trojan reappears. (Same as last year.)

17. A handful of sports franchises file bankruptcy. Three Major League
Baseball teams fail in the middle of the season and seek government
bailouts in order to complete the season. The Wilpon family, victimized
by Madoff, sells the New York Mets to SAC's Steve Cohen. The New York
Yankees are undefeated in the 2009 season, and Madonna and A-Rod have a
child together (out of wedlock).

18. The Fox Business Network closes. Racked by large losses, Rupert
Murdoch abandons the Fox Business Network. CNBC rehires several prior
employees and expands its programming into complete weekend coverage.
Two popular CNBC commentators "go mainstream" and become regulars on
NBC news programs.

19. Old, leveraged media implode. The worlds of leverage and old media
collide in a massive flameout of previous leveraged deals. Univision
and Clear Channel go bankrupt. The New York Times (NYT Quote - Cramer
on NYT - Stock Picks) teeters financially.

20. The Middle East's infrastructure build-out is abruptly halted owing
to "market conditions." Lower oil prices, weakening European economies
and a broad overexpansion wreak havoc with the Middle East's markets
and economies.


Last edited by Red 1221 on Wed Dec 31, 2008 11:27 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Chuck U. Farley
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions   Wed Dec 31, 2008 6:17 pm

I predict the USA finds Osama Bin Laden....Well mainly cause he is Barak Hussein Obama's Uncle .... He will probably get pardoned!
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Eddie Haskell
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Age : Join date : 2008-12-01 Posts : 128 Location : AZ

PostSubject: Re: Predictions   Wed Dec 31, 2008 6:22 pm

I predict that the Housing problems will continue even though interest rates are near 4%
I predict that a major department store will file BK
I predict that a group of people will move to the moon and live there
I predict that GM and Ford will merge
I predict that a State in the USA tries to become a Nation of its own


Last edited by Eddie Haskell on Wed Dec 31, 2008 7:59 pm; edited 1 time in total
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California Cheese Sucks
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions   Wed Dec 31, 2008 6:39 pm

I predict that a president will have an attempt on his life either in this country or from another country
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Bob Bixley
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions   Fri Jan 02, 2009 2:20 am

I predict that someone hacks into the entire internet and it completely crashes and has to be rebuilt from scratch.
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Sweet Pee
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions   Fri Jan 02, 2009 2:41 am

I predict that someone comes up with a car that runs on water and it changes the freeway system as we know it due to the traffic that we will have from this invention
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Smitty
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions   Fri Jan 02, 2009 7:06 pm

I predict that a Tidal Wave hits the West Coast and levels a major City 100,000s of lives will be lost maybe even millions
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secret sauce
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions   Fri Jan 02, 2009 10:43 pm

I predict that the police department in my hometown is not going to do one single blasted thing about the drug deals that go on right outside my front door. I do not want my cute neighborhood where old people walk their dogs around the park and little kids have fun playing to turn into a drug hood.

LISTEN UP YOU LOSER DRUG DEALER PIECES OF CRAP...DEAL YOUR DRUGS IN FRONT OF YOUR OWN HOUSE BECAUSE IT IS OBVIOUSLY CLEAR THAT LAW ENFORCEMENT IS NOT CONCERNED ABOUT YOU. STAY OUT OF MY NEIGHBORHOOD.
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Chuck U. Farley
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PostSubject: Re: Predictions   Sat Jan 03, 2009 7:04 pm

I predict that tupac will come back from the island he is on right after the movie with Notorious BIG comes out
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Larry Tan
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PostSubject: I predict that....   Fri Feb 20, 2009 5:40 pm

I firmly believe that the Lord's coming is so imminent even at the doors! So let's "prepare to meet our God!"
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Larry Tan
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PostSubject: WHY I BELIEVE GLOBAL WARMING IS A HOAX!!!!   Fri Feb 20, 2009 5:45 pm

WRONG POST, SEE OTHER TOPIC JUST CREATED, THANKS!
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Xombin
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Age : 33 Join date : 2009-03-22 Posts : 38 Location : Westminster, Colorado

PostSubject: they legalize it...   Sun Mar 22, 2009 5:29 am

i predict industrial uses for Marijuana like oils for fuel, fruits for medicine, fibers for cloths being legalized.
and i see thousands of new jobs and an unimaginable amount of money being created because of this.
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